After a second wave of major realignment over the last couple of years, it only leaves the question of what could be coming next for the future of college football. Coming into the 2024–25 season, there are several questions that need to be answered about the future of the PAC-12 conference, and with rumors about Florida State wanting out of the Atlantic Coast Conference, it brings up plenty of scenarios all over the board. So this is my best shot at taking a guess at what college football would look like following a third turn of major conference realignment.
Pacific 12 Regroups and Rebuilds
The Pac-12 conference has given us plenty of memorable moments over the years, and it would honestly be a major disappointment to watch the conference disappear. After the exit of 10 members following the 2024 sports year, the two remaining members are Oregon State and Washington State. Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington all packed up and went to the Big Ten, effectively turning that into a super conference.
Meanwhile, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah will now be playing Big 12 football next season, along with Colorado, which will make its return to the conference after leaving for the Pac-12 in the first wave of realignment. However, the most confusing moves of them all are the ones that led Stanford and California to be members of the ACC. With only the bare bones of Oregon State and Washington State remaining, the PAC 12 will seemingly pull from the Mountain West Conference to rebuild their historic conference.
Which brings us to the question of: who will the conference grab from the MWC? I think it is clear that a team like Boise State is the first choice that the Pac-12 would look at. Throughout the early 2000s and 2010s, they have turned themselves into a premier and consistent program, which has continued into the 2020s. After the inclusion of Boise State, you would look to rebuild your status inside the state of California, with teams like Fresno State, San Jose State, and San Diego State joining as well.
Utah State would seem like a prime candidate, alongside the likes of both Nevada and UNLV, to tap into the Vegas market. With membership hypothetically sitting at 9, it leaves three choices left. Wyoming, New Mexico, and Colorado State would effectively round out their raid on the MWC conference and put the PAC-12 back at 12 member schools. Gone are the days of divisions, so what you would be left with is a standalone table of:
- Oregon State
- Washington State
- Boise State
- New Mexico
- Utah State
- Colorado State
- Fresno State
- San Jose State
- San Diego State
- Wyoming
- Nevada
- UNLV
Mountain West Crumbles???
After the PAC 12 would effectively come in and raid the Mountain West down to the floor boards, it left the question of whether the MWC would rebuild its conference next. Well, the clear answer is yes, and this means a couple of notable FCS programs would be making the jump to the FBS to compete.
Joining Air Force and Hawaii would be FCS powerhouses like North Dakota State and South Dakota State, as well as Montana, Eastern Washington, and Montana State. The eighth and final member would be New Mexico State from the Conference USA. That would leave the MWC with eight members; however, the one downside is that five of those members would not be full charter members for at least a couple more seasons.
However, if we’re being honest, this seems like the most unlikely scenario, as asking for five FCS programs to make the jump to the FBS in one season would be uncharted territory, and the adjustment would certainly be an interesting one for the conference. If the Mountain West Conference is in fact raided by the Pac-12, there is a second scenario that may be a bit more realistic. The second scenario would be the inclusion of all 12 current MWC members, making the jump to the Pac-12, and then the former Pac-10 changing its name once again to become the Pac-14.
The Age Old Question Of The Irish
Finally, we get to our last little domino in the conference realignment game, and of course, that is the University of Notre Dame. They are perhaps always going to be the most sought-after program when it comes to conference realignment because it equals an instant injection of money and prestige into the conference that they decide to join up with.
Right now, the logical and most likely choice would obviously be the Atlantic Coast Conference because of their prior contracts and affiliations in multiple other sports. However, ruling out the Big Ten would be a hard thing to do given significant connections with rivals in the conference, like Michigan, Michigan State, USC, and Purdue.
As a Notre Dame fan myself personally, if you ask me, I would be OK with remaining independent and football due to the new 12-team college football playoff that does not require Notre Dame to be in a conference to compete for a national championship. However, the one thing that might sway the powers that be in South Bend is the fact that Notre Dame cannot earn a first-round bye without winning a conference championship.
Conclusion
In conclusion, conference realignment has been both a harmful and beautiful thing for the sport of college football, among several other college sports. Think about the matchups this will create not only during the football season but also in basketball, baseball, hockey, and whatever other season you find enjoyable.
If you’re going to tell me without a straight face that a yearly UCLA versus Indiana or Purdue basketball matchup is not enough to move the needle for you, then I simply don’t believe that you’re a true college sports fan. Or, on the flip side, a renewal of the great rivalry between Texas A&M and Texas in the sport of football, as this latest wave of conference realignment leaves us with a lot to look forward to over the next several years.
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